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Chwiliwch 15 miliwn o erthyglau papurau newydd Cymru

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15 erthygl ar y dudalen hon

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There can be little doubt but that the Meeting which ha.s just concluded between the Austrian and German Emperors and their military and political chiefs deepens in effect the subservience of the Dual Mon- archy to the Germans. The increasing un- rest amongst the Slavonic elements in the touth and the north, the mutinies in the fleet, and the disaffection amongst portions M the sffmies, though due to diverse causes, remind the Austro-German and Magyar Min- istries who dominate the remainder that without the support of Germany they would be speedily engulfed. The Emperor Charles, though no doubt from dynastic ambitions desirous of asserting independence of Ber- lin, realises .tha.t pcrsona.!]y he is powerless to alter this fundamental dependence, of the governing peoples in Austria-Hungary upon the Germans. The peace offer which he communicated to France in 1917 through a brother-in-law of his wife, who is reputed to be pro-French, was the most striking and probably the last effort of self-assertion. There is little doubt but that the Emperor sought to make his dynasty impregnable by restoring peace to his distracted Empire. He sought to achieve this by a course which would assure him also of a certain amount of sup- port amongst the Allies; and upon terms that would preserve for his Empire its in- tegrity, whilst in reality leaving it much stronger, with the danger that was always in the past to be apprehended from a strong Russia dispelled, and with an enlarged Po- land, the new Ukraine, and a discomfited Rumania, as fresh pawns with which to play in a,diplomatic game for the future aggran- disement of his Empire. The policy of the Allies towards Austria- Hungary remains unchanged; it should even be hardened. The tremendous convul- sion that has swept away the Russian Em- pire is destined to leave an enduring and mighty mark upon the political face of Europe. Its main effect upon the Western Powers is the leaving of Germany, even despite such territorial restrictions as may ensue from a peace enforced by victorious Allies, much the most powerful and homo- geneous body in the new Europe. We need some compensation for the disruption of Russia, and can only find it in a correspond- ing disruption of Austria-Hungary into its racially component parts. How to attain that, at the moment, failing a miracle, is a problem only soluble by the complete over- throw of German armed power. With Ger- many cast down to the ground, Austria- Hungary will have no power to resist the Allied demands; but that end may be pre- cipitate^ by the upheavals which are con- tinually breaking out in the Dual Monarchy. As a warning against that, we must recognise the plain fact that Austria-Hun- gary, beset at one time with powerful enemies, always weakened by the racial an- tagonisms which even army discipline could not suppress, has weatherer the storm. Italian prospects of victory, which might have been bright when Russia, Rumania and Serbia engaged the main energies of Austro-Hungarian arms, have been sadly dimmed. With the full power of Austria concentrated against her, Italy has enough to do with an effort to expel the invader from her territory without attempting the grandiose aim of the complete defeat of the massed strength of her ancient and arch- enemy. Austria ooold best serve German pur- poses by an increased contribution in men and material to the Western front, by the transfer of a large proportion of her army to France to swell the power of the Ger- man blow against the Franco-British forces, and bv maintaining a firm hnld upon the vast region in South- East Europe which runs from War- saw towards Moscow, Kieff, the Sea. of Azoff, and the Black Sea. In this region the Germans will find the foundations for the replenishing of their strength in the West, and for its development in new quarters in the East. There is reason to believe that the Germans do not intend, in the matter of food, to allow bad to drift to worse, without making a characteristic- ally thorough and vigorous effort to tide over the crisis. The Russian and Ruma- nian grain and oil lands will be systematic- ally exploited this year to assure, as far as possible, a cessation of the food anxieties of the Central Powers for 1919. Certainly, it will be essential to the Ger- mans, if they are to endeavour to protract the war for some years more, to put an end to the malnutrition which is" now play- ing havoc with the German constitution. There is no reason why they should not do no. "A German peace in these regions means, whatever else it signifies, order and tranquility, improved transport, and general conditions totally different from the war-strain and anarchy which has thrown the staple in- dustry of the Ukraine and Rumania into abaos. The demobilised Russo-Rumanian peasantry will supply an abundance of labour, and the Germans will find the direction and the transport. The enemy will no doubt hope that, at the same time that he is striving to revive the agricultural prosperity of the conquered lands, he will revive a certain amount of commerce with them, and will lay broad and smooth and firm a great road to the Eiast which will enable him to develop his plans in the Middle East, against India, vria Turkestan and Pemia. For the moment, with su<.h military effort M he is making, with an almost exhausted Turkey, we are replying with counter-offensives from Bag- dad and in Palestine. The hostility of the Caucasian peoples, the Georgians and the Circassians, to the Tiirco-Germans has to be overcome before Ratum and Baku, com- municating by sea with Odessa, Sebastopol, the Danube and the rail and river water- way of Austria and Germany, can be em- ployed as bases for a new campaign. For the future we should be able to look forward with confidence to armies raised in India. There is an abundance of fighting men in the Indian Empire to deal in ample numbers with any armies that the German is ever likely to organise. The difficulty of officering large new Indian formations could be overcome by a, much more liberal use of native officers who would be at least equal to the average Turkish officer in mental cali- bre. 1* ew people can survey the war with- out a consciousness that we have totally failed to realise more than a small pro- portion of the enormous value of India as a fighting unit. Turkey haa but a fifteenth of the population of India, but the Germans have probably wrung five times the amount of. battle power out of the Turks and their subject races. A Middle EMtern campaign, conducted by native raised armies on either side for the main part, with some small stiffening of white troops, may seem to lie far in the ftibure.. But we see already its commence- ment in the operations north of Bagdad, and with the Rtuuiang out of the way, the capac- ity Of Turkey, ttiough almost squeezed white, to serve still further German plans, is re- newed. Iff the coming year of slaughter in France dies down. as all other years of war have died -down, in a. winter lull, with the weary armies nursin thelMelves into convalescence in fortified fronts for a. new campaign in 1919, we may expect enemy plans in the Near and Middle East to be • pressed on energetically. The plain facte ape that the Germans/are in a position to put an end to their food troubles, and to face the war in 1919 with full stomachs again. They have the grain lands, the people to till them, and certainly ,he ability to exploit them to the best ad- vantage. New fields of ra,w material are • onenea out to them. They have, from their standpoint, secured such success in the East that advantages won in the West, and once of vital) import to them, no longer mat- ter greatly. So it becomes now a necessity, not for the mere expulsion of the enemy from invaded Allied territory, the liberation of France and Belgium and the approach of the Allies to the Rhine, but for the com- plete crushing of the German Army-an- other- and much harder task. At so many points do the Germans hold great gains (,f illimitable future potentiali- ties, that the most drastic overthrow is needed to undo their calamitous work. At one stage ir. the war the driving of the, Germans out of the invaded Western zone would have signified decisive defeat for the enemy; now it. will mean that no longer, for it will not necessarily in the least df*- gree relax the enemy's g-rip upon Eastern Europe. Far more than ever does it be- come imperative for the Allies to battle on until tHe German armies are so crushed that non-conditional surrender can become the Allied terms of peace.

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