The Cambria Daily Leader

HOW LORG CAN THE I GERMANS LAST? Von der Goltz speaks in. one of his books of a struggle between great armies being carried on, with small gains and losses, until at last tlie point of exhaustion comes to one side or the other. On the I western side that is the sort of straggle now going on; in effect, it is the nature also of the struggle in the east; and the point of exhaustion has not yet been I reached. What if many months pass, or let us say a year passes, before the Ger- mans and Austrians come to the ex- haustion stage? Let us put the military situation at its worst for the Allies, and imagine that the trench warfare will continue indefinitely in France and Flanders, and the ebb and flow continue in Prussia, Poland, and the Austrian territories. Will the economic factor bring a decision within the twelve months ? We receive so many contradictory re- ports regarding the internal condition of Germany that we may be pardoned for becoming as cynical as Pilate. American diplomatic and consular representatives in Germany and Austria are said to have reported to Washington that starvation is almost at the doci- that in Austria it confronts hundreds of thousands; that in the rural communities the Germans are bordering close on starvation." And yet a neutral who has been but recently in Germany declares that in Munich the prevalent opinion is that the war will last a long time, that people are pre- paring for such an eventuality; that thQrEJ is no unemployment and that in this respect the city is better off than at any previous time." At Dresden, he tells us again, the ope-ra is well attended, the picture galleries are exhibiting, and life appears normal. Not signs, these, of cities on the verge of starvation! What, then, are we to make of the measures taken by the Germans to conserve their wheat supplies, of the alarm presented by their newspapers, of the anxiety dis- played regarding the near future? Is the I' great Fear upon Germany? Is tho "frightfulness" which dictated the policy of February 18th due to the spectre of national want? TF it merely a German game, to excuse amoay noutrals, the new development. We believe the real situation is that Germany is being torn with anxiety re- garding its ability to foed its people, no matter how carefully it conserves ;ts supplies—that, in short, it does not know how long it can last out. The problem is too b%, too complex. There is a theory that the present outcry ahout starvation is a calculated exaggeration which has the double object of justify- ing the violent measures now proposed and of concealing the real shortage which, is assumed to be in copper, rubber, or other munitions of war. But it is impossible to think that it is. all exaggeration, and that Germany is confi- dent of its lasting powers under a drastic regime of siego rations. It is problematical indeed whether any Govern- ment organisation can put a whole nation on ehort commons. It can be done for a besie^od town, because the necessity is urgent and visible, and under stress of it all differences of rank or wealth are merged into a common peril. But as the Westminster Gazette" argues, it is a very different thing doing it for a whole country which has been taught to believe. and honestly does believe, that it is ab- solutely assured of victory and in no peril from its enemies. Dr. Eltzbachor and his colleagues in a pamphlet pub- lished at tho end of 1914 on Germany's food supplies, seem to think that the Government can do it merely by raising the price of commodities on which it is desirable to economise and lowering the price of those of which it is desirable to increase the consumption. But the effect of this would be to leave the diet of the -rich and well-to-do practically unaltered, while removing the higher-priced com- modities out of the reach of the poor. The Government cannot stop there: it must complete the policy. It mn&t make the conditions universal, and see that rich and poor are placed on an equal basis. And such a step will bring the fear still nearer. More drastic measures are neces- sary, but can the German Government apply them without spreading panic throughout the whole land ? The answer to that question," says one wr-itm-, de- ponds not only on the state of German food-supplies, but on an estimate of th* German character." In other words, in the economic sphere, the fundamental question is the psychology of the German nation. What measure of sacrifice is it prepared to endure? What is the break- ing-strain? Now we have to remember that the Ger- man has been well-drilled and disciplined. He is surrounded by regulations from the cradle to the grave. In this country we are, hy. nn ture, 3n antagonism to government; in Germany Prussian theories have hardened into a veritable imprisonment of the will." The national docility amazes everyone who witnesses it. The late Mr. G. W. Steevens once drew up a catalogue of the Thingb a German May Not Do; they are so numerous and so oppressive that, according to a recent volume by a distinguished German p.ison official, one out of every twelve persons. now living in Germany has been convicted of some offence. Here, then, we are left with a gigantic problem, beyond solution today. Will the German—essentially morbid by nature, as most of his litera- ture shows—tormented by fear, haunted by the spectre of starvation—will he sub- mit to drastic food regulations, knowing in his heart that in themselves they are a token of military failure and a sure sign of ultimate defeat? Or will he brpak the brrjds of a life-time, and confront hh Government with graver difficulties at home than those on the battle-fields? Easy questions to ask! Only the future can answer. t

FOllIfniE STRAITS. | Will Troops Be Used ? Some GermaP,.i 'Exaggerations ly For the second time during the war ani Allied Fleet has bombarded the forts ati the mouth of the Dardanelles. But the attack of Friday and Saturday seems to I have been a far more prolonged and, serious affair than that of Nov. 3. It j appears tolerably certain that much! damage has been done to the forts. Tho consequences which will ensue from the forcing of the Straits, and the means! that will be required to effect it, are discussed below. Five miles off tho Anglesey Coast on Saturday morning, the British steameri Cambank, of Cardiff, 3,112 tons, was! torpedoed at close range by a German submarine and sunk. No notice was given by tha piratical craft responsible j for this outrage, nor was any attempt i made to rave Jife. Three men were killed outright by the explosion, and aj fourth man was drowned by falling into' the aca. The steam collier Downshire, belonging in the Eai-t Downshire Steamship Com-i pany. Captain Connor, was stepped by! the German submarine U12 olI tfee Calf of Man about six o'clock on Saturday evening. Five minutes were given to the crew to leave, and the vessel was then sunk. In Petrograd it is believed that the criti-l cal phase of the operations in East! Prussia has been pased. The German! claims of enormous captures arej ridiculed, and fho Austrian stories to the same purport are denounced as de- liberate lies. FORCING THE STRAITS. nP'HE Straits of the Dardanelles, be- sides being heavily mined, are forti-j iicd in both banks along their entire course of thirty-five miles from the Medi-j terranean to the Sea of Marmora. The! width varies from one to four m-iles. At the Mediterranean entrance the two forts1 of Ilelles, on the European side, and Kum- kale, on tho Asiatic coast, are separated j by two miles. Only once in history has tho passage of I the Dardanelles been forced. In 1807 a Pri-i tish fleet under Admiral Sir John Duck- worth succeeded in getting through to the Sea of Marmora, but had to pay dearly for getting out again. During the Avar between j Italy and Turkey three years ago I.ll! Italian flotilla penetrated for i). short dis-I tance, but was discovered, and had to re- treat. The Powers and the Straits. Great Britain, interested in preventing: Constantinople, one of the gates in t o' overland route to India, from falling into the hands of a foreign country, concluded in 180.9 a treaty with Turkey, promising I her support against any aggressor in those I waters. In 1811 the closing of the Darda- n-elles against foreign warships was saTic-I tioaed by an international treaty dra-wii; up in London, and the measure was con-! finned in J856 by the Treaty of Paris, in! 1871 by the London Convention, and again I in 1878 by the Treaty of Berlin. This pro-i vision, of course, refers only to times of peace, but it shows with what anxiety Europe regarded in the past the possi- bility of warships appearing before Con- stantinople. IF CONSTANTINOPLE FELL. IF the Allied Fleets could force the I Dardanelles. Constantinople would I fall at once, and tha communications be- tween Constantincpla and the Turkish, armies in Asia and Europe would be cut. The Turkish armies threatening Egypt and fhe Caucasus are supplied I from C.msbpiinopl(. With tho fall of Lhe capital these would be deprived, cer: tsinty of munitions of war, probably of! food. The only alternatives open to;: them would be to surrender or to scatter,! if, indeed, their point of direction was' not completely changed by a revolution in Constantinople under the gunt) of the, Fleets. Constantinople, in I'!hort, is the! heart of the Turkish Empire. A Sea Route to Russia. Another immediate consequence of the fall of Constantinople would be the, opening of a highly important 6ea-route to Russia. Not only would Ruesia be able to export her corn, to the advant- ago of this country and to the benefit of. her nuances, but she would be able to supply her armies in the field, which at present must depend on Vladivostok;: and frozen Archangel for imported muni- tions. That would have an important reaction on the Russian campaign against Austria and Germany, which, so' it is commonly understood, is hampered by defective supplies. GREATEST IN HISTORY. fpiTE bombardment by the Anglo-French fleet of thp. defences at the Dar- denefles mouth is, in respect of the power of ships and guns, the greatest naval bombardment in history. Under the rain of fe.50Ib. (12-inch British guns), 7491b. (12-ineh French), 5761b. (10.S-inch French), (to-inch British), 3S5lb. (9.2-inch British), and 2Mlb. (7.5-inch British) EheUs, not to mention the 1001b. to 771b. shells of the 6.4-inch to 5.5-inch gans, the iorrihea- tions must have suffered se»'<n>dy. It is only possible to visualise dimly ap.-i in-I dLstincly the character of this tremendous bombardment by th? powerful brcad- sides of the eight Anglo-French ships, j using all their big guns and as many of the lesser guns as could be brought to bear. Ships v. Forts. The bombardment has a deeper in- terest, says Mr. Archibald Hrtrd in the Daily Telegraph," hE-cause ships are not supposed to fight forts; the latter, being stationary and with every advantage! arising therefrom, are presumed to be! able to get the better in any such c6n- test. Admiral Mahan put the matter in a nutshell when he remarked that ships are unequally matched against forts, in the particular sphere of forts: just as cavalry and infantry are not! equal, either to the other, in the other's i sphere. A ship can no more stand up i against a fort-, costing the same amount of money than the fort could run a race with the ship. The quality of the one is ponderousness, enabling great passive strength; that of the other is mobility.* THE CROSSING BY XERXES. .UT 6*a-power alone, it is contnMù. Bwill not reduce the Dardanelles. How to take the Straits is a problem which has exercised strategists innumerable ever since Xerxes crossed tho Straits on his bridge of boats. The favourite expedi-) ent in modern, times has been a landing I on the shores of the long peninsula of Gallipoli from the Gulf of Sarcs, thus [ taking the European side of the fortifiea-i tions in rear. A force established on the peniusula should be able to withstand a land attack from the direction of Con- stantinople. The peninsula ends in the isthmus of Buiair, whore the famous lines, held by our troops at lite outset of the Crimean War, art, only about four miles wide, and arc flanked by swamps. Land Operations. No statement has been made as to whether further operations are contem- plated, nor would any such statement be in any case desirable, says the "Times." We can only deal with the iacts as they are officially presented. They lead to the conclusion that bombardment from the sea will not carry such a project very far, unless it is combined with troops. On the importance and value of the enterprise, should it be successfully com- pleted, all experts are agreed. On the nature of the resistance likely to be offered in such an event, we think most experts are agreed also. The Turks have not sent the bulk of their troops either to the Caucasus or to the peninsula of Sinai. What the Allies Dare Not Risk. No greater mistake could be committed than to give the Fleet insufficient military support, declares the Times." Success in such an undertaking might change in many respects tha whole complexion of the war. The results that would accrue are many and vital. The one thing that tho Allies dare not risk in a persistent attack on the Dardanelles is failure. In I the West the failure of a particular operation, however great it may seem, very ofteu has little effect. The failure to hold Antwerp caused general regret, but left the Allies entirely unmoved. In the East things are different. At the Gates of the East. At the Dardanelles we are at the gates I of the East. Whenever operations are begun in the East, there must be no failure and no going back. These things aro truisms. We are convinced that they have been fully weighed, and that, should anything further be done, it will not be done inadequately. There is one further point which njust be noted. We have said that to clear the way to Russia the Bospliorus must be held also. That is I quite true, but it should also be remem- bered that if the peninsula of Gallipoli could be seized and safely held, the worst stage would be over. The rest might follow at some due and convenient season. S EAST PRUSSIAN LIES. TT is becoming clear beyond doubt that the Berlin stories of Russia's losses in East Prussia are made up in the best style of Ananias's successors. The Russian Army organ in an inspired note remarks that the German claims that the Russians lost 2C,,000 men, 20 guns, and 30 machine-guns are no nearer tho truth than the Austrian claims to have tAken 29,000 prisoners in Galicia or 12,000 ia the Bukowina. Equally false is the ¡ report that Osowiec is taken. It is not l oven besieged. On the other hand, the Germans arc silent about the loss of a whole regiment of Uhlans during their abortive advance towards Wilna. The "Times" correspondent at Petro- grad says to-day that it is too early as yet to appraise the exact value 01 the magnitude of the operations under re- view. For the whole of the German offensive from East Prussia smacks rather of a diversion to conceal import- ant movements in Galicia or West Poland. And, if this be so, we may be Enre that the Grand Duke has other and more important answers in reserve. RUSSIANS' MAIN OBJECT. THE desperate attempts tq turn both — flanks at once of the strategic line from East Prussia and from the Buko- vina is presumed to have forced Russia to weaken her centre. But, the Petrograd correspondent of the Morning Post" thinks that it is more probably the Ger- mans who have fatally weakened their protection of the direct roads to Berlin in order to throw their weight upon the Hanks. The Russians steadily content themsjolves with accepting and repulsing the attacks, keeping always in view the main object of this defensive strategy to kill off Germany's best trained fighting men and demoralise the remainder. A Significant Fact. There is satisfactory evidence that this object of the first period of the war- is approaching completion. The tone of the German Pross, in referring to the evacua- tion of East Prussia by the Russians, which, of course, is represented as a de- feat and a flight, falls far below the stan- ward of enthusiasm displayed upon the first occasion of a similar movement. The fact that the authorities are prohibiting the inhabitants of East Prussia, who fled before the Russians, returning to their homes is declared by the correspond ant to be significant, and has evidently had its effect in cooling the German triumph over the departure of the Russian invaders. CRITICAL PHASE OVER. XXROM the latest statement issued by — the Staff of the Commander-in-Chief, it is to be inferred that the situation cre- ated by the sudden irruption of the Ger- mans across the frontier of East Prussia has now passed its critical phase. It is mentioned that the fighting which took place on Friday in the zone of the for- tress of Ossovetz, and on the roads lead- ing to Lomza, Ostrolonko, Prazsnisz, and Plonsk, had the character of an encounter battle. If the Russians have succeeded in so far readjusting the balance of the con- flict and have obtained forces in theso districts, so as to be able to parry the German attack with a counter-offensive, the Daily Telegraph representative at Petrograd believes we need have little fea,r as to the ultimate issue. Our Allies will undoubtedly render as good an ac- count of themselves here as they have on all previous occasions, when similar con- ditions of oonilict have obtained. Petrograd Pessimists. It would be idlo to deny that the sud- den abandonment of the strip of East Prussia which had so long been held by the Tsar's soldiers, and the apparently somewhat precipitate retirement towards the line of the Niemen, caused a good deal of disappointment and some uneasiness in the ranks of Russian society. In this society, as is always the case in such junctures, people were not lacking to put about rumours of a gloomy complexion, which were not only untrue, but devoid of a particle of justification. It should, however, have been clear from the outset that the utmost that the enemy could have obtained in this quarter would havt) been a local success that would have had no perceptible effect on the course of the campaign as a whole. The Russian Aim. If Russia was fighting for favourable terms in a patchwork compromise, a firm occupation of portions of the enemy's noil would mean the possession of valu- able cards, of which she could make use when terms of peace came to be discussed. She is, however, playing for a much bigger stake. What she has pledged her- self to secure, this wpter points out, is (Continaed lit foot of next Column.)

I VICTIMS OF RAIDER. I Krorcprinz Wiihelm Sinks Five Vessels. Buenos Ayres. Thursday (delayed).—' German steamer Holder has arrived he/re, having on boai-d the passengers and crowS of the Briti6h steamers Hemisphere, High-, land Bra?, a.nd Potaro and of the <?!i'? ships Semant" kund Wilfrid, which Wt?-? sunk by the German auxiliary cruiser Kron- prinz Wilh-elm off the north ooast of Brazil duri-,g last month and this. The passensrers of the Highland Brae number about 50. 11 t)4* numbers of the crews on the Holder aref given as follows:— Itighl-ind Brae SO Hemisphere 27 Potaro 47 Semantha. 22 Wilfrid 7 Saturday (delayed).—The Govorainejit hao decided to regard the Holger as all aaxiliitry cruiser, and has given her 24 hours to leavw the port or be disarmed. Sunday.—The period of grace allowed tok the Holger having expired, the authorities have ordered her to be interned. According to the newspapers, it is rumoured that the Kronprinz Wilhelm is in: the River Plate with the crews of other Bhips which have been sunk.

A COLOSSAL UNDERTAKING. We get some idea of the magnituda of the task which the Germans have accomplished at Kiel—by far the greatest: engineering feat 60 far carried out on the continent of Europe—when it ¡g stated that the width of the canal at the bottom has been increased from 72 to 144 feet, its depth from 29 to no less than 40 feet, and its width at the water-level from 220 to 334 feet, while its new locks, two at each entrance, are the greatest of all concrete structures. It is a littla over (>1 miles in length, so can claim to be the second longest canal in the world. It is only exceeded in length by the Suez, and is some twenty miles longer than the new channel across the Isthmus of Panama. From an article on the canal in the March London Magazine" we learn that to pass through the channel takes a small vessel on an average ten hours, and a large ship fifteen hours.

A FIGHT IN THE AIR. The latest information from the frontier gives details of a thriling flight in the air between an aeroplane from the Allies and a Taube, which took place during the last raid along the Belgian coast. Between Blankenbergh and Zee- brugge the English aviator, greatly daring, had dropped unusually low ia order to ensure the accurate placing of his bombs. This manoeuvre deceived the Germans, who did not realise their error till an electric train had been wrecked and many German soldiers killed. Then the Taube started in pursuit, and the. artillery opened heavy fire. Circling round, the Englishman de- liberately offered battle, always keeping- the advantage of elevation. As the artil- lery became more dangerous, he, ap- parently, drew into line with his oppo- nent, in order to compel the German gunners to cease fire. The manoeuvre suc- ceeded, and the Englishman opened the duel in mid-air. Pistol shots rang out, but without apparent effect. Then the Englishman dashed towards; his opponent and emptied his weapon at him. The Taube was at once in difficul- r ties. It swayed in the air, and dropped, ) with terrible suddenness, whilst the victorious Englishman disappeared in tho (dire,;ti-,aii r-f

LÐXLJ TOiliiiMENT. Under the presidency of Mr. A. T. Wil. liams, J.P., of Baglan House, a boxing tournament was held in the National Schools, Britonferry on Saturday even- ing. The events were open to Scouts only and competitors were from Aberavon, Britonferry, Baglan, Neath, and Port Talbot Troops. There was a good attend- ance, including many of tho bo,; s" parents. The referee was Mr. Gill, whilst* Mr. C. Eldridge held the watch. Tha light-weights in their exhibitions were most amusing, but showed some excel- lent judgment at various stages in their contests. The prize—a silver medal-was secured by Bertie Lewis (4 stone, 6 pounds, Baglan Scouts). The middle-weight con- tests afforded some enjoyment to the- spectators, and several rounds wero fought with much determination. Two silver medals were awarded: 1, J. Callard, Neath; 2, Norman Bury, Britonferry. Tha heavy-weight contestants showed evidence of good training, and the two silver medals with gold centres fell to 1, Leelio Parr, Britonferry, and 2, Emlyn Thomas, Britonferry. A special medal was awarded to A. Callard. Neath, who met with very bad luck, spraining his thumb in his first round, which he won. During the evening, exhibition boxing1 was given by Messrs. Cooper (managing director of the Britonferry Canister Co., Ltd.) and Mr. Charles Eldridge, local gymnasium instructor, while Mr. Percy Hunt, of Port Talbot, gave an exhibition of muscle development.

NEWTON CONCERT. I The popular concerts held every Saturdi ? evening at Paraclete Congregational Chapel, Newton, are getting more popular every week. On Saturday lpst the School- room was crowded to its utmost capacity, when a splendid programme was gone through by the following artistesSop- rano, Miss Ailie Chegwidden; contrail o, Miss Solomon; baritone, Mr. Gardiner; tenor, Mr. Tanner; elocutionist, MNs Eva. Bfynon. Miss Hayes also entertained witli hr violin. The /accompanist was Mi«» Marion Jones, and the meeting was pttK sided ever by Mr. C. CL Vivian.

The Right Hon. the Earl of Selbonae It I expected to speak at Llanelly at a great iesruiting meeting oil March 9th.

the final extirpation of that system of international burglary which has given the rulers and dominating caste of Prussia the position which they hold ill. Germany, and on which they relied te obtain the permanent hegemony of Europe, if not of the world. This aim can only be obtained by the definitive destruction of the German military machine, and in the course of the long and arduous process of accom- plishing that end it will, in the future as in tho past, be necessary from time to time to yield ground that has already been won in order to maintain intact the main plan of military operations. If once our Allies are on the road to Berlin. all the local difficulties, such as that which confronts them in the Place d'Armes of the Masurian Lakes district. will resolve themselves without further trouble. Germans Stow Down. There are signs that the latest invasion: by the Germans over the frontier of East Prussia has proved their weakness rather than their strength. The movement which was coTnmeoe-Pd with such a show of vigour and energy rapidly lost its momentum as the enemy left his own boundary line and that network of rail- ways which is-tha c&da' basts M, Vis ggtita strategy*